Commercial Real Estate

Is there trouble brewing for commercial real estate? (part 1)

Is there trouble brewing for commercial real estate? (part 1)

On February 19th, 2021, the federal reserve issued its semiannual “Monetary Policy Report” (1). A report that I am particularly interested in because it mentioned that “commercial real estate prices remain at historically high levels despite high vacancy rates and appear susceptible to sharp declines, particularly if the pace of distressed transactions picks up or, in the longer term, the pandemic leads to permanent changes in demand.”

I’ve been anticipating this sentence since the beginning of the pandemic as the governors of many states shut down the profitability of many commercial buildings. I fear, however, that readers may not be sure what the federal reserve is talking about or why one could interpret it with concern.

So in this article, I will paint a fictional but relatable and realistic scenario of why there might be concern for the commercial real estate market.

Let’s pretend that there is a yoga studio, owned by Sally, operating profitably in January of 2020. The previous year, the business had the following:

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